TEHRAN – In a seismic shift from mainstream media’s hawkish rhetoric, American journalist Tucker Carlson has become an unlikely catalyst for rethinking U.S. policy toward Iran.

The former Fox News host’s Sunday post on X, which has amassed over 5.8 million impressions as of this writing, critiques the exaggerated portrayal of Iran as a “terror sponsor.” This analysis has sparked bipartisan scrutiny of Washington’s persistent war-mongering tactics.

As U.S. President Donald Trump, echoing the warmongers and anti-Iran neoconservatives in Washington DC, escalates threats against Tehran, Carlson’s data-driven critique and growing public skepticism signal a turning point in the debate over America’s priorities—domestic crises versus foreign interventions.

‘Compare the Numbers’
 
Carlson’s post cut through decades of fearmongering with a simple question: “How many Americans have been killed by Iran on U.S. soil in 20 years? Compare that to drug ODs, suicide, or car accidents. Still think Iran is the greatest threat?”

Backed by stark statistics—over 108,000 overdose deaths in 2022, 49,000 suicides, and zero Iran-linked fatalities on U.S. soil—the tweet challenges the logic of prioritizing regime change over healthcare or infrastructure.

The timing is critical. Trump’s recent unsent letter to the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, threatening military action if negotiations fail, mirrors the bellicose posturing of allies like National Security Advisor Mike Waltz (“all options on the table”) and Israeli regime’s convicted war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu, who has declared an intention to “finish the job” with U.S. support.

Carlson’s rebuttal, however, resonates with a war-weary public: a 2024 poll found 61% of Americans oppose military action against Iran, even if diplomacy collapses.  

Trump’s brinkmanship 

Despite Carlson’s reported influence in de-escalating past crises—notably persuading Trump to abort a 2019 strike after Iran downed a U.S. drone—the president’s recent threats mark a dangerous pivot.

Trump’s assertion that military action would be “a terrible thing for [Iran]” disregards Tehran’s adherence to the 2015 nuclear deal until the U.S. unilaterally withdrew in 2018.

This stance also overlooks the fact that Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa explicitly prohibiting the acquisition, development, and use of nuclear weapons, reinforcing the country’s commitment to peaceful nuclear activities.

Furthermore, as a long-standing member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) since its inception, Iran has consistently emphasized its compliance with international frameworks aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons.

This pattern of provocation reflects a broader agenda to destabilize Iran for geopolitical gain.  

Carlson’s independent platform, amplified since his 2023 departure from Fox News, has become a prominent space for anti-war perspectives.

His interviews have featured a range of guests, including military veterans, geopolitical analysts, and outspoken critics of U.S. foreign policy.

Figures like Colonel Douglas Macgregor, known for his opposition to interventionist wars, and journalist Glenn Greenwald, a vocal critic of U.S. militarism, have used Carlson’s platform to challenge mainstream narratives.

Comedian Dave Smith hailed his recent tweet as “THE America First message,” while Army veteran John demanded, “Stop fighting Israel’s war!”

Even geopolitical analyst S.L. Kanthan, often critical of U.S. conservatives, praised Carlson’s “non-ideological thinking” post-Fox.

Manufacturing Iranphobia: media complicity and historical amnesia

The demonization of Iran is rooted in decades of U.S. interference. The 1953 CIA-backed coup against Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, which reinstated the authoritarian Shah, set the stage for the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Under the Pahlavi regime, brutal acts against the Iranian people became a grim reality. The Shah’s government systematically suppressed dissent, implementing widespread human rights abuses that left deep scars on the nation.

Central to this repression was SAVAK, the secret police notorious for its ruthless tactics—methods that were directly learned from the CIA. These practices of torture and coercion were employed to silence any opposition and maintain an iron grip on power.

Moreover, the U.S. played a complicit role by supporting the Shah’s regime despite its blatant violations of human rights. This backing not only helped entrench an oppressive system but also contributed significantly to the enduring legacy of foreign interference in Iran.

While the subsequent take over of the U.S. embassy in Tehran by Iranian students is frequently weaponized to justify hostility, it is rarely contextualized as a backlash to American subversion.

Modern Iranphobia, however, relies on recycled propaganda. Fox News and outlets like The New York Times have perpetuated debunked claims, such as journalist Michael R. Gordon’s 2007 reports falsely linking Iran to explosives used against U.S. troops in Iraq.

“The bombs were made in Iraq, by Iraqis,” stresses author Scott Horton, “but the lie sold the war.”

Similar tactics are now being employed against Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. Following his recent discussion with Carlson, where he cautioned that an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would lead to a “regional catastrophe,” he was swiftly labeled a “Tehran apologist” for promoting diplomacy over conflict.

Iraq’s ghosts and Iran’s realities

The 2003 Iraq invasion, justified by fabricated Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) claims, serves as a grim warning of the potential consequences of a war with Iran.

That conflict cost over 4,500 U.S. lives, $2 trillion, and gave rise to ISIS.

However, Iran poses even greater challenges for those advocating military action. With a population exceeding 90 million (compared to Iraq’s 40 million in 2003) and a rugged, mountainous terrain, Iran’s defensive capabilities are formidable.

The country’s overwhelming and highly effective missile and drone arsenal, including advanced hypersonic missiles, underscores its military strength.

Iran has also constructed numerous "missile cities" across the country—underground facilities housing a vast array of missiles—further enhancing its strategic deterrence.

The nation’s military prowess was already demonstrated in October 2024 during Operation True Promise II, showcasing its ability to execute precise and impactful strikes.

These factors collectively highlight the immense risks and potential fallout of any military confrontation with Iran, making it a far more complex and perilous endeavor than past conflicts in the region.

Curt Mills of The American Conservative warns a war would merge “Afghanistan’s mountains and Iraq’s urban hellscape,” while potentially igniting regional wildfires of incalculable proportion.  

Meanwhile, domestic neglect persists. The U.S. healthcare system ranks last among wealthy nations, opioid deaths outpace wartime casualties, and climate disasters strain crumbling infrastructure.

“Why are we funding forever wars instead of fixing this?” asked one viral response to Carlson’s tweet.  

The backlash to Carlson’s tweet reveals a public weary of elite-driven wars. “Anyone pushing another Middle East [West Asia] war is a traitor to our children’s future,” declared influencer Mel.

With domestic crises and inequality escalating, America’s choice is clear: perpetuate Iranphobia for obedience to the Israeli regime and profit, or prioritize healing at home and peace abroad.

As Carlson articulates, the greatest threats lie within—"drug overdoses, suicide, illegal aliens, carjackings, diabetes, and the Covid vaccine”—which claim far more American lives than foreign adversaries, underscoring the urgency of addressing systemic issues over inflating external threats.